The 2025 US Open is set to deliver another electrifying fortnight of tennis at Flushing Meadows, and all eyes are on Iga Swiatek. With her recent dominance on the tour, including a Wimbledon title and a breakthrough win in Cincinnati, many wonder if she has become the clear favorite heading into the year’s final Grand Slam. The women’s draw offers plenty of intrigue, drama, and potential surprises. Here are three key takeaways.
1. Swiatek’s Form Makes Her the One to Beat
Iga Swiatek comes to New York in perhaps the best form of her career on hard courts. She recently lifted her first Wimbledon trophy and followed it up with a commanding run at the Cincinnati Open, where she dispatched Elena Rybakina in straight sets before facing Jasmine Paolini in the final.
Sportsbooks and analysts have taken notice. Swiatek opened as the betting favorite, with odds around +240, edging out defending US Open champion Aryna Sabalenka (+350). What makes her so dangerous this year is not just her consistency but her ability to adapt her clay-court foundations to faster surfaces. Her serve has improved dramatically, her return game remains among the best on tour, and her resilience under pressure was on full display in Cincinnati.
The draw will always test a top seed, but Swiatek’s blend of confidence and momentum gives her a slight edge. For the first time at the US Open, she looks like more than just a contender—she looks like the benchmark.
2. The “Big Three” Dominate the Field, but the Gap Is Narrow
While Swiatek may have the momentum, the women’s draw once again highlights the depth of talent on tour, particularly among the “Big Three”: Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, and Iga Swiatek.
- Sabalenka, still world No. 1, thrives on hard courts and has reached multiple Slam finals in the past two seasons. Despite her occasional lapses in major finals, her explosive game and powerful serve make her a perennial threat in New York.
- Coco Gauff, buoyed by her home crowd, has already proven she can handle the pressure after her stunning 2023 US Open triumph. She sits in Swiatek’s half of the draw, setting up the possibility of a blockbuster semifinal.
- Swiatek, as noted, brings the most momentum and recent silverware, which may tilt the balance her way this year.
What sets this era apart is how competitive the top tier has become. Unlike previous seasons dominated by one standout player, the current landscape has three women capable of running the table, which keeps the draw exciting and unpredictable.
3. Rising Stars and a Tough Draw Add Drama
The 2025 US Open draw has delivered fascinating possibilities. Swiatek finds herself in a half that includes Coco Gauff, Amanda Anisimova, and Madison Keys—all players capable of pulling off upsets. Meanwhile, Sabalenka must navigate past tricky opponents such as Mirra Andreeva, Jessica Pegula, and other dangerous floaters.
Emerging stars like Victoria Mboko and Andreeva also add unpredictability. Their fearless approach could trouble even the established favorites early on. With younger talent increasingly unafraid of big stages, there’s every chance the draw could see some unexpected twists before the semifinals.
Verdict: Swiatek Slightly Edges as Favorite, but It’s Wide Open
So, has Iga Swiatek become the outright favorite at the US Open? On paper—yes. Her combination of recent titles, confidence, and ability to adapt across surfaces positions her as the front-runner. But in practice, the margin is razor-thin. Sabalenka’s power game and Gauff’s home-court advantage remain formidable weapons that could derail Swiatek’s bid.
Ultimately, this year’s US Open looks like a collision course between the tour’s three brightest stars, with the added spice of fearless challengers looking to disrupt the hierarchy. One thing is certain: if Swiatek does win in New York, it will confirm not just her status as the favorite this year, but as the defining player of her generation.
