When the red clay of Rome comes alive in May, the tennis world turns its gaze to the historic Internazionali BNL d’Italia, better known as the Italian Open. With Roland Garros looming just around the corner, this WTA 1000 event is more than just a tune-up — it’s a battlefield for clay-court supremacy. And in 2025, all eyes are on two women: Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka — the undisputed favourites to lift the trophy in the Eternal City.
Let’s dive into the 2025 Italian Open odds, the storylines brewing in Rome, and why Swiatek and Sabalenka are the queens of conversation this clay season.
Iga Swiatek: Queen of Clay Looking to Defend Her Roman Empire 👑
When you think of clay courts in modern women’s tennis, Iga Swiatek immediately springs to mind. The Polish powerhouse has built a reputation for dominating on the red dirt — particularly in Rome, where she’s already a three-time Italian Open champion.
Swiatek’s 2024 clay season was stellar. She captured the Stuttgart title and made another deep run in Madrid before falling just short in a tightly contested final. Now, coming into Rome, the 23-year-old seems poised to defend her crown and remind everyone why she’s the world No. 1.
Swiatek’s Odds to Win the 2025 Italian Open:
+150 (or 1.50 in decimal) — according to major bookmakers, Swiatek enters as the firm favourite.
Why the Odds Are in Her Favour:
- Surface Advantage: Clay is her kingdom. Her ability to slide, construct points, and wear down opponents makes her nearly unbeatable on this surface.
- Mental Maturity: Swiatek has grown not just as a player, but as a leader. Her strategic mindset and calm under pressure have matured beautifully.
- Past Success in Rome: Three titles already, including a 2023 final where she didn’t drop a set all tournament.
Aryna Sabalenka: The Challenger Who Refuses to Fade 🌪️
If Swiatek is the empress of clay, Aryna Sabalenka is the storm threatening to dethrone her. The Belarusian powerhouse has had an emotional and electrifying clay swing so far in 2025. Her recent Madrid Open title, where she exacted revenge on Swiatek in a thrilling three-set battle, has reshaped the odds.
After reaching back-to-back Grand Slam finals and improving her movement and patience on clay, Sabalenka has finally evolved from a hard-court slugger into an all-surface threat.
Sabalenka’s Odds to Win the 2025 Italian Open:
+250 (2.50 decimal) — she’s the second favourite, but not by much.
Why Sabalenka Can Win It All:
- Confidence Boost: Defeating Swiatek on clay has changed the narrative around her. That’s huge psychologically.
- Power Game Adjusted for Clay: Sabalenka’s timing, shot selection, and court coverage have improved dramatically.
- Momentum: Rome is her final test before Roland Garros — and she knows it. Expect full throttle.
The Rivalry We Can’t Get Enough Of: Swiatek vs Sabalenka 🔥
The Swiatek-Sabalenka rivalry is becoming the cornerstone of WTA tennis in the 2020s. What started as a battle of No. 1 vs No. 2 has turned into a dynamic chess match of power vs poise.
Their 2024 Madrid final was an instant classic. In a three-set thriller filled with jaw-dropping rallies and emotional intensity, Sabalenka came out on top. It marked a symbolic shift — Swiatek is no longer invincible, and Sabalenka is no longer the underdog.
If they meet again in Rome, especially in the final, expect fireworks.
Who Else Is in the Mix? The Dark Horses of Rome 🐎
While Swiatek and Sabalenka dominate the odds, the field in Rome is anything but soft. Several players could disrupt the top two.
Elena Rybakina (+500)
The big-serving Kazakh is always a threat, and her recent semifinal showing in Madrid proves she’s dangerous even on clay. She beat Swiatek in Rome in 2023 — don’t count her out.
Coco Gauff (+700)
The American prodigy may still be refining her clay-court game, but her athleticism and improved backhand slice have made her a legitimate contender in 2025. She’s hungry for another big title and has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season.
Danielle Collins (+1000)
The retiring American is playing with nothing to lose — and it shows. Her fearless baseline game and crowd-favorite status make her a wildcard in every draw. She’s gone deep in every tournament this year and won’t back down.
Betting Smart: What the Odds Don’t Show 🎯
Betting odds are shaped by public perception, recent form, and historical data. But there’s more beneath the surface:
- Weather in Rome can affect conditions dramatically. Humid and slow? Swiatek thrives. Hot and fast? Sabalenka’s power gets a boost.
- Draw placement matters. If Swiatek and Sabalenka land on opposite sides, a dream final is likely. If they’re on the same side, it opens the door for players like Gauff or Rybakina.
- Injuries & Fatigue: The clay season is grueling. Any sign of injury (especially after Madrid) can flip the script.
Social Media Buzz: Who’s Winning the Crowd? 📱
On Instagram and X (formerly Twitter), fan excitement is at an all-time high. The #SwiatekVsSabalenka hashtag trended during Madrid and is expected to dominate again in Rome.
Coco Gauff’s off-court presence, including her recent fashion-forward appearance at the Met Gala, has also made her a fan magnet — drawing even non-tennis fans into the sport.
Meanwhile, Sabalenka’s emotional victory and post-match honesty continue to win hearts, while Swiatek’s quiet dominance is respected by both veterans and younger fans.
Final Word: The Battle for Rome is More Than Just Odds 🏛️
The 2025 Italian Open isn’t just another WTA 1000 event — it’s the crucible that will shape Roland Garros expectations. With Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka leading the charge, the stakes are higher than ever.
Swiatek wants to extend her dynasty. Sabalenka wants to break it. And in the backdrop, the Eternal City watches with timeless grace, ready to crown its next queen.
If you’re betting, watching, or simply soaking in the storylines — keep your eyes on Rome. Because when the clay dust settles, only one warrior will stand tall.
