The clay is calling in Charleston, and one of the most intriguing matchups of the 2025 Charleston Open is already stealing headlines: Jessica Pegula vs Ajla Tomljanović. It’s a compelling face-off between a consistent Top 10 powerhouse and a comeback queen who’s no stranger to battling through adversity.
Let’s dive deep into their head-to-head history, current form, what’s at stake, and who’s likely to emerge victorious on the green clay of Charleston. Whether you’re a stats junkie, a tennis romantic, or just here for the drama—this preview is designed to pull you in and leave you wanting more.
Head to Head: Pegula vs Tomljanović
When it comes to Jessica Pegula vs Ajla Tomljanović head to head, the numbers paint a clear picture—but don’t be fooled. Pegula leads their encounters with a 2-0 advantage, with both wins coming on hard courts. Their most recent clash took place in late 2022, a straight-sets win for Pegula that showcased her trademark consistency and ability to absorb pace and redirect it with laser precision.
Tomljanović, however, has always been a competitor who thrives in the face of a challenge. Despite not yet cracking Pegula’s code, she’s played her close and has shown the kind of tennis that could trouble the American, especially on a surface like clay, where patience and point construction are paramount.
Previous Matches:
- 2022 Toronto (Hard Court): Pegula def. Tomljanović 6-4, 6-3
- 2021 Indian Wells (Hard Court): Pegula def. Tomljanović 6-2, 6-4
Current Form: Contrasting Comebacks and Consistency
Jessica Pegula: A Rock at the Top
Jessica Pegula enters Charleston as a top seed and a player who has quietly but firmly established herself as one of the most consistent WTA players over the past few years. With multiple Grand Slam quarterfinals and WTA 1000 finals to her name, Pegula’s baseline game and mental toughness have made her a fixture in the Top 5.
In 2025, she’s already reached the semifinals in Dubai and the quarters in Miami, reinforcing her hard-court prowess. But don’t sleep on her clay game—she reached the final in Madrid in 2022 and continues to improve her movement and shot selection on slower surfaces.
Ajla Tomljanović: Back With a Vengeance
For Ajla Tomljanović, 2025 has been all about redemption and resurgence. After a long injury layoff that disrupted her 2023 season, she’s finally healthy and hungry. Her performance at the Charleston Open so far has been impressive: a gritty three-set win in the first round followed by a clinical takedown of a seeded opponent.
She’s moving well, hitting cleanly, and showing the same fire that took her to back-to-back Grand Slam quarterfinals in 2022. While her ranking has slipped due to time off, make no mistake—Ajla is a dangerous floater in any draw, especially with her experience and ability to change the pace of rallies.
Charleston Conditions: Who Has the Edge?
The Charleston Open is unique. As the only WTA 500 event played on green clay, it offers a different kind of challenge compared to the European red clay swing. Green clay plays faster and offers a lower bounce, favoring aggressive baseliners with good timing—but it also rewards those who can grind and defend.
Jessica Pegula thrives on pace and loves dictating from the baseline. Her movement on clay has steadily improved, and she’s added variety to her game with drop shots and higher looping forehands when needed.
Ajla, on the other hand, has a game more naturally suited to clay. She uses heavy topspin, can absorb pace, and has solid defensive skills. Her forehand down the line is a weapon, and she’s capable of constructing points methodically—key traits on this surface.
Tactical Breakdown: Strengths, Weaknesses & Strategy
Pegula’s Playbook
Pegula’s success often comes from playing high-percentage tennis. She’s not flashy, but she’s incredibly reliable:
- Strengths: Court coverage, backhand precision, mental fortitude.
- Tactics: Expect her to use the backhand to open up the court, redirect pace, and exploit Ajla’s movement, especially on the forehand side.
- Weaknesses: Can be vulnerable if forced to hit on the run or drawn into net exchanges.
Tomljanović’s Toolkit
Ajla brings a bit more variety to the table. Her slice, drop shot, and ability to play with spin give her an edge in longer rallies:
- Strengths: Shot variety, topspin-heavy forehand, experience in long matches.
- Tactics: She’ll look to disrupt Pegula’s rhythm, use angles, and move the American laterally. Her goal will be to extend rallies and draw errors.
- Weaknesses: Serve consistency and physical durability could be tested in long sets.
Prediction: Who Will Win?
Here’s where it gets juicy. Pegula may lead the head-to-head, but the clay levels the playing field—especially given Tomljanović’s current form and hunger.
Why Pegula Could Win:
- Her consistent ball-striking and calm demeanor under pressure give her a clear edge in tight moments.
- She’s played more matches this year and has sharper match rhythm.
Why Tomljanović Could Win:
- Her ability to change pace and adapt to clay conditions could frustrate Pegula.
- She’s playing with nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Prediction: Pegula in three tight sets.
Expect a high-quality battle where both players show off their tactical IQ. Pegula’s consistency and ability to raise her level in big moments give her the slight edge, but don’t be shocked if Ajla pulls off an upset.
Why This Match Matters
This isn’t just another early-round clash. This match is a symbol of what makes the WTA Tour so compelling:
- For Pegula, it’s about maintaining her status as one of the game’s elite and proving her clay credentials ahead of the European swing.
- For Tomljanović, it’s about reigniting her career and showing the world she’s still a contender.
Charleston has a way of setting the tone for the clay season. Think of it as the overture before the grand opera of Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros. A win here sends a message—and these two know it.
Final Thoughts
The Jessica Pegula vs Ajla Tomljanović showdown at the Charleston Open 2025 promises tension, tactics, and perhaps a few surprises. It’s a classic matchup of consistency versus unpredictability, baseline grind versus all-court savvy.
Whether you’re rooting for the steely resolve of Pegula or the fiery comeback of Tomljanović, one thing’s certain: this match will deliver.
Grab your popcorn, tune in, and don’t blink—because this could be one of the standout matches of the tournament.
What’s Next?
If you’re enjoying our in-depth WTA previews, stay tuned for more Charleston Open coverage, including:
- Danielle Collins’ farewell tour drama
- Emma Navarro’s rise as the American clay hope
- Daily match predictions and upsets watch
